Main weapon of Spain
Spain's weapon is not a single player, it is suffocation through possession. De la Fuente's 4-2-3-1 builds from a controlled base with Rodri and Pedri dictating rhythm, Dani Olmo floating as the No.10, and Lamine Yamal offering that right-sided 1v1 threat that drags defences out of shape. Oyarzabal, with four tournament goals, is the reference point who finishes the pressure the midfield generates.
Against Portugal, Spain produced 1.77 xG and 15 attempts while conceding just 0.60 xG, and Portugal managed no second-half shot on target. That is the blueprint. With Amadou Onana out, Belgium's midfield loses its main ball-winner, and that is precisely the zone where Rodri, Pedri and Olmo can create an overload. If Spain get the first goal, they will strangle the game.
Main weapon of Belgium
Belgium hurt teams in transition and through the air. Against the USA they created 2.15 xG from 15 shots, with Charles De Ketelaere excelling as a centre-forward, scoring twice and adding an assist. Garcia has options that most nations would kill for: De Bruyne feeding runners, Doku's wide speed, Lukaku attacking crosses.
The danger for Spain lives behind the full-backs, where De Bruyne's passing into space can turn a controlled game into chaos. But there is a limitation. Belgium have conceded in three straight matches, and the balance between star power and midfield protection is fragile without Onana. Pick the wrong eleven and they hand Spain the midfield.
Which arguments look more convincing
Spain's advantages are structural and stable: control, defensive discipline, a settled XI. Belgium's are explosive but scenario-dependent. The first goal is everything. If Spain score first, this becomes a 1-0 exercise in game management. If Belgium strike first, the match cracks open and their attacking depth becomes lethal.
I rate the draw at a fair 24%, and given both sides' knockout pedigree, extra time is a genuine possibility. In a shootout, Courtois tilts the psychological edge slightly toward Belgium, but Spain's composure and squad depth balance that.
Prediction for the result and qualification
I expect Spain's weapon to work more reliably. The most likely scenario is territorial dominance, Belgium sitting for transitions, and a tight low-scoring affair. My probable score is Spain 1-0.
Main pick: Spain win @ 1.62, justified by the clean-sheet run and Onana's absence. Alternative pick: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00, which carries more variance given Belgium's recent scoring but fits a controlled Spanish game.
Extra time is a real threat, perhaps around one in four. If it goes the distance, Belgium's Senegal fatigue could bite. My final call: Spain advance to the semi-final, more likely inside 90 minutes than not.